Weekly regional production calls, weeks before harvest.
Yield Forecasting fits each week's index curve to a region's yield history and sends you a production estimate and a trend chart, so the desk has its own number before the print.
Spec
- GSD
- Wide / 10–30 m
- Cadence
- Weekly, through the crop year
- Platform
- Wide-swath satellite
- Spectral
- Multispectral
- Unit
- One call per growing region
- Files
- CSV tables and a chart image
What arrives each week
One set of files per growing region, dated to the week's pass, in formats an analyst can drop into a workbook or a notebook.
| Deliverable | Format | What's in it | Cadence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly production call | CSV | The regional production estimate for the week, with the crop year, the growing region and the pass date on each row. It refreshes every week the season runs, so last week's call and this week's sit side by side in one table. | Weekly |
| Trend chart | PNG | The season-to-date index curve drawn against the region's history, with the trend line. It goes straight into the morning note or the position review. | Weekly |
| Curve values | CSV | The weekly index values behind the chart, for this season and the past seasons used in the fit. Load them into your own model and rerun the regression against your own yield series. | Weekly |
| Region breakdown | CSV | The call split by growing region, so a weak corner of the belt shows up in the region it belongs to and never averages away into one national figure. | Weekly |
| Call note | Text note | Which passes went into the week's curve, and which were skipped for cloud and filled by interpolation. You know what the curve rests on before you lean on it. | Weekly |
Supply, fit, deliver
You name the regions and the crop. The calls come back every week.
01Before the season
Regions and crop in
The growing regions you trade, the crop, and the crop year. Send a boundary file or a list of counties or districts. Say which past yield series you want the season judged against.
02Each week of the season
Weekly pass
Wide-swath multispectral imagery over the regions, turned into that week's point on the index curve.
03Each week of the season
Fit against history
The season-to-date curve is regressed against historical yield for that region. The fit starts once enough of the season exists to regress against.
04Each week of the season
Call goes out
The weekly call, trend chart, curve values, region breakdown and call note, once a week through the season.
Limits
| Condition | What it does to the call |
|---|---|
| Regional resolution | At 10–30 m a pixel is far bigger than a field edge. The call reads a growing region well and says nothing about one farm, one field or one operator. |
| Cloud | The imagery is optical. A cloudy week's pass is skipped, the curve interpolates across it, and the call note says which weeks were filled. A run of cloudy weeks widens that gap. |
| Early season | The call doesn't start on planting day. The regression needs enough of the curve to fit, so the first calls come later than the first condition ratings. |
| A directional call | It compares this season's curve with past seasons. A weather event late in the season, a change in acreage or a disease can move the outcome after the curve is drawn. It never gives a guaranteed bushel figure. |
| Area is yours | The call rests on yield against history for the region. Planted and harvested area come from the desk's own view or the official numbers, since a satellite curve can't settle them. |
| Weekly, not daily | The cadence is a weekly target through the season. There is no intraday feed and no promised delivery hour. |
Why the desk needs its own number
The balance sheet starts from the last Crop Production report and gets adjusted with condition ratings, weather maps and calls to elevators. A vendor's greenness map, or one satellite look late in the season, shows where the crop is healthy but leaves the analyst to turn it into bushels by hand. Between reports the number goes stale, and the trade is already positioned around the print by the time the desk has a view of its own.
Who it's for
Built for
- A grains and oilseeds analyst who owns the supply and demand balance sheet and wants a weekly regional production read of their own.
- A quant or data analyst who will load the curve values into the desk's yield model.
- A desk that reads official reports and wants a read to weigh against them.
Not for
- Desks that need a farm-level or field-level yield number.
- Desks looking for a guaranteed bushel count or a forecast that beats the print.
- Desks that want daily or intraday updates.
Questions from the desk
How early does the call start?
Once enough of the season's index curve exists to regress against history. That is later than planting, and the first calls carry that in the note.
Does it replace the USDA reports?
No. It is a read to weigh against the Crop Production report and the WASDE, and against your own model. It is not a way to get ahead of either.
Is this a guaranteed bushel count?
No. It is a directional call built from the season's curve against past yield.
Can we check it against our own yield series?
Yes. The curve values come as a CSV, so you can rerun the regression against the series your desk already trusts and compare the result with the call.
What does cloud do to a week?
A cloudy week's pass is skipped and the curve interpolates. The call note says which weeks were filled, so you can discount that week's point.
Does a 10–30 m pixel limit the call?
For a growing region, no. For a farm or a field, yes: the call doesn't go down there.
Which crops and regions can you cover?
Tell us the crop and the growing regions you trade and we'll say what can be scoped. This page doesn't list a coverage map.
How do the files get into our systems?
You get CSV tables and a chart image. There is no direct integration with a trading or risk system. CSV opens in a workbook or loads into a notebook.
Who owns the calls and the imagery rights?
Your regions and crop list stay yours. What you can do with the files, and the licence on the imagery behind them, is written into the project agreement before the first week runs.
How is it priced?
It depends on how many regions and which crops, so we quote after we've seen the list. There is no price list on this page.
Send us the regions you trade.
Name the crop, the growing regions and the crop year. We'll scope the weekly call from there.
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